Small observation about the impact and activity of USA in the worldwide events for the past two weeks.
08.12
Trump confirms Nvidia and AMD will pay the US government 15% of revenue from chip sales in China, selling older chips instead of new ones. Nvidia shares fall to 181.97.
FT reports that global stock indexes rose after the US extended the deadline for trade talks with China. The HK50 climbed to 24924.
Trump extends tariff deadline against China by 90 days to November 9, CNBC reports. The US dollar rises to 99.44.
A record number of global fund managers view US stocks as overvalued, according to an August BofA survey. The US500, however, rose to 6388.
Goldman Sachs says the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs on consumer prices is only starting to show. US consumers covered just 22% of tariff costs from April through June, but this share is expected to rise to 67%.
08.13
President Donald Trump extended a pause of higher tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days into early November, stabilizing trade ties between the world’s two largest economies.
Following the inflation report, traders began to actively bet on a Fed rate cut as early as September.
Tariff reversal — A CBP ruling last week shocked the market, declaring 1kg and 100oz bars subject to tariffs under Trump’s Aug 7 measures(source). Trump later tweeted “Gold will not be Tariffed!”, easing panic. Spot-futures spreads narrowed sharply, with NY Comex and London prices nearly aligned.
The US national debt exceeded $37 trillion for the first time in history, according to data from the country’s Treasury Department. Meanwhile, the US dollar fell to 97.90.
08.14
Treasury yields held gains as traders fully priced in a 25-basis-point September Fed rate cut, with some betting on a larger 50-basis-point move amid cooling inflation, weak jobs data showing fewer than 150,000 jobs added.
Bitcoin hit a record $124,000, topping its $123,205.12 high, as pro-crypto policy, corporate buying, moderating inflation, and Fed rate-cut bets drove its market cap to $2.5 trillion amid a broad risk rally.
India and China are in talks to restart border trade of locally made goods halted since 2020, a move worth about $3.16 million annually before the shutdown and seen as another step toward easing post-clash tensions.
08.15
Trump and Putin meet in Alaska today. Trump says Putin is ready to make a deal on Ukraine, and the US hopes to bring Kyiv into the talks. XAUUSD declines to 3341.
Goldman says the ECB has finished cutting rates this cycle and will keep them on hold for an extended period. EURUSD rises to 1.1670.
BBG poll: Analysts expect the PBoC to ease policy in the coming weeks. CNBC reports China’s July growth slowed, with retail sales and industrial output missing forecasts. HK50 falls to 25,201.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent says the US is studying ways to acquire BTC to expand its strategic reserve. BTCUSD rises to 119,200.
08.18
Putin and Trump at the Alaska summit announced progress in negotiations on Ukraine and prospects for cooperation but noted that no final agreements have been reached yet.
Gold prices continue to decline weekly amid signs that President Donald Trump’s tariff policy is starting to create inflationary pressure in the U.S. and may lead to rate cuts. XAUUSD is trading at 3348.
Most economists surveyed by Reuters expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates in September and implement another cut by the end of the year. The U.S. Dollar is trading at 97.83.
08.19
Trump is pushing for a Putin–Zelenskiy summit within weeks, saying he sees a “reasonable chance” to end the three-year war, with talks potentially including 1,000 prisoner releases, $150B in US-Ukraine arms deals, and new security guarantees backed by Europe.
Trump’s tariffs pushed China’s exports to the Global South up 100% in a decade, versus 28% to the US and 58% to Europe, now making up 50%+ of its surplus and 20% of partners’ GDP.
08.20
One proposed resolution of the conflict envisions European troops deployed in Ukraine under US command, with the US providing only air support. Russia opposes the deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine.
A seasonal correction is unfolding in US stocks. BofA notes that historically the weak period starts in August, with selling pressure peaking in mid-September. The US500 has dropped to 6,402.
US tech stocks came under pressure amid concerns over the future of the “AI boom” and a potential financial bubble. The US100 fell to 23,315.
08.21
The Israeli army has launched an offensive on Gaza. Markets did not react strongly.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) downgraded its estimate of global gas demand growth in 2025 to +1.8% from +2% previously. XNGUSD is trading at 2.87.
Wall Street forecasts NVIDIA’s value to grow to $9 trillion by 2030 (that’s more than 2X from current levels). The stock is showing a recovery and is trading at 175.37.
Shares of European defense companies continue to fall amid negotiations on Ukraine. EURUSD is also showing a decline and is trading at 1.1634.
08.22
The Fed’s 3-day Jackson Hole conference is underway, with 18 policymakers and global officials awaiting Powell’s 10 a.m. speech Friday for clues on a possible September rate cut of 0.25–0.50 points as inflation tops 2% and hiring slows.
The US and EU advanced their trade pact, planning to cut auto tariffs to 15%, explore steel and aluminum relief, and target $600B EU investment plus $750B US energy buys by 2028.
