What was really happening in the past two weeks?
Trade talks,US impose more tariffs,new negotiations and deadlines for ceasfire in Ukraine and BRICS response to Trump’s tariff politics.Last couple of weeks were a true real life chess game with some master level moves by President Trump.
07.28
Trump announced a trade deal with the EU: 15% tariffs on EU goods, open markets for US exports, $600B in new EU investment, and major purchases of US military equipment and $750B in energy products.
In the same time goldman forecasts an 11% rise in Chinese stocks amid hopes of a US–China trade deal. Tariff talks resume today in Stockholm.
Western businessmen, economists, and policymakers believe that the European economy will face losses after a trade deal with the US, which involves reducing tariffs from 30% to 15%, according to NYT, RTRS, and FT.
07.29
The EU and US rushed to finalize a trade deal imposing 15% tariffs on most EU exports, pledging $750B in US energy purchases and $600B in investments, while critics warn of economic fallout.
This caused China’s trade juggernaut hit its first snag since May, with port cargo plunging 7% to 6.2M containers last week as the country adjusts to lingering 50% US tariffs despite a still-strong 3,500 cargo flights.
07.30
#APPLE will shutter its first-ever retail store in China on Aug. 9,as result of tariff war between US and China,citing changes at Dalian’s Parkland Mall while continuing global expansion, with shares closing at $214.05.
Oil held firm after Trump warned Russia to strike a Ukraine truce within 10–12 days or face sanctions, with crude closing at $66.76.
07.31
China called the trade talks with the US in Stockholm “constructive” and confirmed both sides agreed to extend the deal deadline and continue negotiations, according to Chinese officials.
Trump warned Russia has 10 days to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine. If he imposes 100% tariffs on Russian oil, it could disrupt global supply — Russia accounts for 4.5% of global oil demand. XBRUSD rises to 71.60.
According to CNBC, lower US tariffs for the UK (10% vs. 15% for the EU) make British goods more competitive in the American market, potentially boosting UK exports. GBPUSD falls to 1.3354.
Central banks bought 166.5 tons of gold in Q2 2025 — one-third less than Q1 — as prices that hit a record $3,500/oz in April cooled demand, though total purchases still reached $132 billion, up 45% year-on-year.
08.01
Trump slapped 15% tariffs on South Korea, 25% on India, and unveiled copper trade surprises ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline, roiling markets as his push for a new global trade order triggered currency swings and investment jitters.
Even Switzerland’s banks aren’t immune of Trump’s tarrifs.
The Swiss National Bank posted a 15.3 billion-franc ($19B) half-year loss as the dollar’s 10% slump from Trump’s tariffs dragged foreign-currency assets down 22.7B francs, partly offset by an 8.6B-franc gold gain.
08.03
The US will impose new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on dozens of countries starting August 7. Nations facing the highest rates include Syria, Myanmar, Switzerland, Iraq, Serbia, and South Africa. FT: Trump ignites a global trade war with sweeping new duties.
Historically, US stocks start weakening in August, with peak selling by mid-September (BofA). Goldman notes August sees the highest fund outflows of the year. US500 declines to 6320.
Trump’s push for lower rates faces bigger hurdles than Powell, as $34 trillion in US debt, 73 million retiring boomers, and falling foreign demand drive borrowing costs toward a sustained 4.5%–5% range.
08.04
The US has announced plans to build a nuclear reactor on the Moon, fearing competition from China and Russia.
According to NASA, the move aims to secure American leadership in the new phase of the space race.
Morgan Stanley notes that its risk appetite indicator shows “greed” in US equities has climbed to historically extreme levels. US500 rises to 6,349.
Oil holds steady as markets await Trump’s clarification on possible measures against India and China for buying Russian crude, Bloomberg reports. XBRUSD trades at 68.54.
08.05
Trump claimed that last week’s employment report was fabricated — just like the data published before the presidential election. He accused “radical left-wing Democrats” of manipulating the figures.
Trump plans to hike India tariffs by over 25% within 24 hours, impose new levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals rising to 150–250% within 1.5 years, and may extend a China trade truce while warning of more global tariffs.
Germany is launching a €100 billion Deutschlandfonds, starting with €10 billion in public funding to attract up to €100 billion in private investment for strategic sectors like defense, energy, and raw materials.
UK firms are increasingly hiring contractors—up 22% since April—to avoid higher payroll taxes from a £26 billion hike, while permanent job vacancies have fallen 9% and over 180,000 employee roles have been cut since October.
08.06
OpenAI is in early talks to let employees sell shares in a deal that could value the company at $500 billion—up from $300 billion—as it eyes a future IPO amid soaring ChatGPT revenue, now at a $12–20 billion run rate.
China summoned Nvidia over alleged tracking risks in its H20 chips, signaling red lines against U.S. surveillance tech as tensions rise over AI exports—#NVIDIA stock closed at $957.28 today.
Trump’s tariffs and BRICS
Brazil’s President Lula da Silva plans to meet with BRICS leaders, starting with India and China, to discuss a potential joint response to US tariffs, according to RTRS.
The US dollar is likely to continue its decline, as it remains in a long-term downtrend. Amid concerns over the growing US budget deficit, investors are diversifying their investments into other regions. The US Dollar declines to 98.00.
08.07
According to the US Treasury Department, US tariff revenues have surged to a record $29.6 billion. Trump calls today a “great day” as new tariffs on imports from 60 countries take effect.
China Keeps Buying GOLD — 9 Months Straight!
The People’s Bank of China just added 60,000 oz of gold in July, marking 9 consecutive months of purchases! Since November, they’ve stocked up a massive 36 tons. (Source)
This non-stop buying spree — along with other central banks — has been a major force behind gold’s 30% rally in 2025. Prices are now holding strong near $3,400/oz, and despite the high price, the appetite hasn’t disappeared!
Central Banks Keep Buying Gold
According to the World Gold Council, global central banks purchased an estimated 22 tonnes of gold in June 2025. (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2025/08/central-bank-gold-statistics-june-2025)
In total, central bank gold buying in H1 2025 reached 123 tonnes, which is 5% lower year-on-year — but signals that strategic demand remains strong.
08.08
Trump nominated Stephen Miran to a temporary Fed board seat expiring in January 2026, giving himself about 5 months to decide on 1 successor to Jerome Powell as Fed chair, while signaling support for interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points or more. Oil fell for a seventh straight session, with Brent near $66 and WTI under $64, the worst run since 2021, as Trump’s 50% India tariffs and possib
